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Federal Reserve analysts: Economy expanding

MARTINS FERRY — A federal agency reports that economic activity in the Ohio Valley expanded recently, with employment growing at a rate of about 0.7 percent compared with the previous year, and unemployment across the region remaining stable at 5.0 percent.

The report also indicates the number of oil and gas drilling rigs increased compared to a year ago, and that investment in regional oil and gas is up while coal production is down.

“Both pipelines and mid-stream plants are being built. Contacts credited increases in natural gas demand in part to additional demand in gas-fired power generation … coal production declined during the reporting period because of reduced demand, but they anticipate higher output in the coming months.”

Eight times a year the Federal Reserve publishes its Beige Book — officially known as the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions — before its Federal Open Market Committee meetings, which determine the direction of monetary policy. The most recent Beige Book report was produced last week and provides FOMC policymakers with official statistics and anecdotal accounts of the economic environment.

The Federal Reserve is divided into 12 districts, and the Beige Book provides an analysis of the economy of each district according to several indicators. The analysis is largely based on data gathered through interviews with business leaders in each district plus Federal Reserve Bank and Branch directors.

The report said the overall economy expanded across all 12 Federal Reserve Districts in June at a “slight to moderate” pace. Contacts in the majority of districts said they expected “modest to moderate gains” in the coming months. The state of Ohio, the northern panhandle of West Virginia, western Pennsylvania and eastern Kentucky make up the Fourth District Branch of the Fed, which is headquartered in Cleveland.

Last July’s report noted that retailers reported “disappointing” sales prior to Memorial Day compared with 2015 sales. The report said a mall developer commented that brick-and-mortar retailing continued to contract as consumer shopping preferences shift to online digital platforms. This year’s report notes that consumer spending at brick-and-mortar retailers remained largely unchanged from that of the previous reporting period, although sales of apparel items at large chain retailers were “soft.”

“Increases were notable in the construction and nonfinancial services industries. Brick-and-mortar retailers again noted decreases in staffing levels,” notes the report.

“Manufacturing contacts experienced little change in hiring, which was mostly replacements or normal turnover. Staffing firms noted an increase in the number of listings for both temporary and permanent positions, especially for occupations requiring specific skills or advanced degrees, while workforce development officials observed rising job placements for workers with less than four-year degrees.”

The report said prices were slightly higher in manufacturing input costs, and contacts in the construction industry reported higher prices for lumber, copper and steel, plus an increased price for subcontractors. Both industries have been able to offset their price increases by passing on their costs to consumers.

“Manufacturing output grew at a slight pace during the reporting period, somewhat slower than earlier. The small pickup in demand from energy-related companies was more than offset by a decline in the motor vehicle and consumer packaged-product industries,” the report states. “Year-to-date production through May at District auto assembly plants fell about 9 percent when compared to the same time period in 2016. The large majority of manufacturing contacts were allocating capital spending budgets toward maintenance, although some contacts were also allocating monies toward new equipment and technology.”

The report also indicated that sales of both new and existing homes increased by 2 percent compared to the same period last year, and that the average price rose by 5 percent.

“One builder attributed strong sales to a strengthening labor market. Another builder observed that although demand is quite adequate, it is difficult to meet demand across price points because of rising costs for land, lot development and construction.”

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