We might have a ceasefire, but it is not peace
House Speaker Mike Johnson, a quick study in the art of laying it on thick, announced that he was teaming up with Israel’s Knesset speaker to invite parliamentary leaders from around the world to jointly nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize — and for nothing less than inaugurating “a new golden age.”
Though refraining from that level of MAGA-fication, Democrats have not stinted on the praise due to Trump for achieving the ceasefire and hostage agreement. Former National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Bill and Hillary Clinton, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have all offered kudos.
But the rush to declare a new dawn in the Middle East, as Trump and his claque have done, is premature. Yes, it is an unmixed good that the bombs have stopped falling on Palestinian neighborhoods and that the hostages, imprisoned in dungeons for two years, are at last free. Trump deserves praise for getting us to this moment with whatever combination of promises, threats and inducements he offered. All good.
But let’s keep our heads. This is a ceasefire; it is not peace.
Peace requires that both parties to a conflict accept they cannot achieve their objectives through further violence.
While one can (just barely) imagine a scenario in which a consortium of nations, including Arab and Muslim countries, unites to restore Gaza’s infrastructure, the crystal ball gets cloudy when you try to picture a governance plan for Gaza that excludes Hamas, let alone an independent Palestinian state without Hamas.
Leading up to the ceasefire and hostage release, Hamas and Israel signed onto a 20-point plan that is aspirational but also unspecific, vague and already being violated.
The fourth declaration in the 20-point plan specified that within 72 hours of signing the agreement, all hostages living and dead would be returned to Israel. That has not happened.
No sooner did the bombs cease than Hamas fighters began hunting down members of clans who challenge their supremacy.
The outlines of what the plan calls a “New Gaza” are gauzy.
One can imagine a truly gifted statesman or group of them with huge doses of dedication, time, money and, perhaps, a dash of humility undertaking such a mission on the understanding that this would be the work of years if not decades.
Instead, we have the leadership of Donald Trump, who has inserted himself mostly out of lust for glory, whose time horizon can usually be measured in nanoseconds and who has been known to claim a win long before the game is over. Recall that after one brief visit with Kim Jong Un during his first term, he declared the nuclear threat from that nation to be over.
Trump did join Israel’s bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites and insisted that the nuclear program was “obliterated.”
Asked the classic, even cliched question about the conflict, Trump’s off-the-cuff response was, “We’re talking about rebuilding Gaza. I’m not talking about single state or double state. … At some point, I’ll decide what I think is right.”
He may do just that, or he may be off on another tear about something else. Character is destiny, and Trump’s character is made for division and chaos, not the spadework of diplomacy. The ceasefire and hostage release should be celebrated, but it would be folly to expect much more.