Just after the assassination of Charlie Kirk, a New York Times/Siena poll found that Americans believe polarization is the second most serious challenge facing the nation. (The economy came in first.) As recently as one year ago, fewer than 1% of registered voters cited polarization as a national problem; this year, 13% said it was the most important problem facing the nation. Additionally, strong majorities agree that “America’s political system … is too politically divided to solve its problems.”

Not only do Americans believe we’re bitterly polarized; they worry that we’re condoning political violence and that we cannot agree on basic facts. When Republicans were asked to name the nation’s biggest problem, their first choice was the economy but their second was “Democrats.” When Democrats were asked the same question, they put the economy second and named “Trump/Republicans” first.

Nations are not eternal, and domestic divisions often lead to destruction — especially when exploited by foreign enemies. So it’s important to pay attention to these red flags, but it’s equally important not to misinterpret them.

When we consider how much of our discourse is mediated through partisan sources and the fact that the governing political party is dominated by incendiary extremists, it’s surprising we aren’t even more polarized. A reservoir of moderation persists in the nation. It’s shrinking but still present.

Research by More in Common (where I serve on the board) has found that time spent online is highly correlated with support for political violence. A 2024 survey conducted by the group found that 14% of American adults agreed with the statement “I feel that violence is sometimes needed to advance political causes in the U.S. today.” That number jumped to 22% among those who spent five or more hours on social media daily and dropped to 6% among those who devoted a half-hour or less to social media each day.

Misperceptions abound on other topics as well. A June survey found that 85% of Republicans and 89% of Democrats believe freedom of speech to be “unconditional.” Yet Republicans estimated that only 52% of Democrats believed that, and Democrats guessed that only 57% of Republicans would say so.

Vast swaths of Americans of all political persuasions would like to see a more united country, yet on this question as well, the perception gap is large. When Republicans were asked in January what qualities Democrats would want to see in the country 10 years into the future, they guessed “green” or “tolerant.” Republicans estimated that only about 14% of Democrats would say “united,” but in fact, 44% of Democrats chose united, more than any other quality.

There is no sugarcoating the trend toward authoritarianism among the very online and a growing share of Republicans. While only 1% of Democrats say they endorse non-democratic government in the United States, fully 10% of Republicans now say as much.

Surveys can’t capture everything. And even in a nation where large majorities disfavor violence or extremism, we can’t kid ourselves.

Still, the research on perception gaps is a useful corrective to pervasive beliefs about our divisions.

The gaps are wide but perhaps not as deep as we fear, and there remain opportunities for leaders to appeal to unity and mutual respect.