No, the midterms will not turn on the issue of “affordability.”

If affordability truly were decisive, Republicans would easily retain the House and the Senate.

Consider the economic backdrop. Gas prices are at a five-year low, with gas stations in several states selling a gallon of regular for under $2. Several times since Trump’s re-election, the stock market indexes have recorded all-time highs. GDP growth hit 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025. Wage growth is exceeding inflation, but as always, some benefit more than others. Inflation itself is under 3% and trending lower. Egg prices have fallen dramatically. Mortgage rates have declined to the lowest level in three years.

The effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill — no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, tax relief for seniors on Social Security and immediate expensing of business equipment purchases — have barely begun to register.

If voters were focused primarily on affordability, these conditions would be politically devastating for Democrats. But that’s not what this election is about.

The midterms will turn on one question only: Is Trump hatred — among Democrats, Hollywood, much of the media and academia — so deeply rooted that President Donald Trump gets credit for nothing?

Look at the record. He closed the southern border in a matter of weeks without new congressional legislation.

Trump negotiated the release of Israeli hostages and the return of their remains from Gaza. He pressured European allies to shoulder more of the financial burden for Ukraine’s war against Russia. Another big deal.

He significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear capacity. He expanded school-choice options that disproportionately benefit Black and brown students trapped in failing K-12 urban schools.

He forced NATO allies to increase defense spending after years of freeloading. He applied sustained pressure on Iran’s regime at a moment when internal instability has never been higher since the beginning of the “Islamic Republic” in 1979.

On immigration enforcement, Trump has deported roughly 1.5 million illegal aliens — many with violent criminal records. Deportations under Trump in both terms remain below the 3.5 million deportations carried out under former President Barack Obama.

There have been cases in which U.S. citizens were mistakenly detained or arrested by ICE, sometimes for minutes, hours or a few days. According to ProPublica, the number is “more than 170.” Out of roughly 1.5 million deportations under Trump, that comes to 0.0113%, or just over one hundredth of 1%.

Mistakes during deportation by ICE are inevitable — but in the context of reversing years of mass illegal entry, they are statistically rare. If sanctuary cities and states truly wanted to reduce such errors, they would allow ICE to operate inside jails and prisons

All of this brings us back to the real issue.

Trump Derangement Syndrome is real. It is deep. And it has metastasized, not just nationally but globally.

Roughly half the country views Trump with the Jimmy Kimmel mindset. Can anyone seriously imagine Kimmel ever saying, “You know, on this issue, Trump deserves some credit,” or “On that issue, maybe I was wrong”?

Of course not. And that’s the point.

The midterms won’t hinge on prices at the pump or at the grocery store. They will hinge on whether millions of voters can acknowledge reality — or whether their animus toward Trump is so absolute that no achievement, no success and no improvement in people’s lives really matter.

That, not “affordability,” is the question before the country.