(The Center Square) — The Ohio Chamber of Commerce softened its stance on the possibility of an economic recession in the coming months, but not by much.

The chamber’s Economic Advisor Council released its new third-quarter report Monday, estimating a 30-40% chance of a recession as President Donald Trump’s trade policies continue to concern advisors.

The recession prediction is down from April’s prediction, while the council presented its new report with cautious optimism about the U.S. economy, “tempered with persistent uncertainties.”

The chamber established the council at the beginning of 2024 to bring together the state’s top economic minds for their insights on the economic issues that shape Ohio’s business landscape.

“This report reinforces what we’re already hearing from business owners across Ohio,” Ohio Chamber President and CEO Steve Stivers said. “They’re cautiously optimistic, but they’re still facing real uncertainty when it comes to trade, inflation and workforce. That’s exactly why we created this council: to better understand economic headwinds and help inform the policies that will drive long-term economic growth in our state.”

The council believes Congress’ continuation of tax cuts could provide some economic stimulus, but some also believe it could lead to higher inflation and be fiscally unsustainable in the longer term.

The group also said trade policy creates the greatest uncertainty, and council members expressed frustration about its long-term effects on business planning and investments.

The report also expects Ohio to have higher exposure to tariffs in the manufacturing industry.

Key findings from the report include:

∫ Federal funds rate: The council projects 2025 will end with rates between 3.75% and 4.5%, with most members expecting one to two rate cuts.

∫ Recession risk: Probability estimates average 30-40%.

∫ Ohio growth: Real Ohio GDP growth is projected at approximately 1-1.5%, which would continue to lag behind national averages.

∫ Inflation: Core PCE inflation is expected to rise to 2.7-3.5% by year-end due to tariff impacts.

∫ Employment: Ohio’s unemployment rate is forecast at 4.5-5.5%, which is higher than national levels.