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If Trump ends up with Biden’s economy, the outlook is not good

What can Donald Trump do to stop morphing into Joe Biden?

The two presidents could hardly be more different in most ways — but in the one that counts most with voters, Trump is in danger of resembling his predecessor.

Americans rejected Biden and the Democrats last year because they were incensed at the lousy state of the economy.

Right now, they’re not much happier with Trump’s economy. Inflation was the No. 1 concern on voters’ minds last year, and it’s still a top concern today.

Trump’s team says they plan to tout “affordability” as a theme Republicans can win on in November’s congressional midterms.

If the election were held today, that pitch wouldn’t sell: An AP/NORC poll released last week found 67% of Americans view the president’s handling of the economy negatively.

Yet Trump told Politico’s Dasha Burns in a Dec. 8 interview he’d give himself an “A-plus” grade on the economy — and when she questioned that, he raised it to “A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus.”

The administration thinks Americans will come around to Trump’s perspective on the economy sooner rather than later, and well ahead of the midterms.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reassures his colleagues, and his boss, that come April 15 everyone will feel great.

And Trump has a plan he thinks will guarantee a high-growth economy next year: getting the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates.

He told the Wall Street Journal last week he wants “the lowest rate in the world” — indeed “1% and maybe lower than that.”

A Harvard/Harris poll last week found 57% of voters think Trump is losing the fight against inflation, and while that’s an improvement over last month, when 60% said the same, it’s a warning the administration can hardly afford to ignore.

If Trump gets inflation wrong, nothing he gets right will save the GOP.

The good news for Trump is that his overall approval ratings, in the low 40s, are a little higher than Barack Obama’s or George W. Bush’s at this point in their second terms.

The bad news is Obama and Bush both saw their side lose big in the next congressional elections, and neither man was succeeded in the White House by a member of his own party.

The administration wants to beat China in AI development no matter what, which is why Trump just issued an executive order limiting states’ ability to regulate the technology.

But there’s another angle, too, as a report in Semafor notes: “A big car company might promise a $5 billion or $10 billion investment. The big AI companies can raise and spend orders of magnitude more” and “Trump is good at counting zeroes.”

The public, however, takes a darker view of AI, with fully 50% of Americans polled by Pew this fall saying they’re more concerned than excited about the increased use of AI in daily life.

Trump can’t bank on AI giving him that A-plus for the economy he thinks he deserves. What the administration can do, however, is boost other sectors.

Interest-rate cuts are a drug that may produce instant euphoria, but the withdrawal symptoms are deadly. Trump inherited a debilitated economy from a debilitated President Biden; voters will make some allowance for that.

What they won’t do is give the Republican Party another chance if it makes inflation worse instead of better.

Americans voted for Trump; if they wind up with Biden’s economy anyway, there’s going to be hell to pay at the ballot box.

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