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Climate catastrophists just need to chill out

The Supreme Court building is currently surrounded by crowd-control barricades after the leak of a draft decision in the Dobbs case. The plaza was clear, however, on April 22, Earth Day, when Wynn Bruce of Boulder, Colo., set himself aflame to protest climate change.

Bruce’s extreme deed, an echo of the Buddhist monks who self-immolated in 1960s Saigon, is not as mystifying as it could be, because we are steeped in climate catastrophism. A 2021 international survey found that beyond worrying about climate change, 56% of young people believe that “humanity is doomed.”

The failure of serious people to grapple with climate change with balance, maturity and realism is nearly as serious a problem as climate change itself.

Climate change is a big problem, but it is not an extinction-level event. No respected scientific body, including the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says that climate threatens to end human civilization.

The IPCC estimates that by 2100, 78 years from now, the global economy will be between 300% and 500% larger than it is today. Richer societies are more resilient than poor ones and less vulnerable to climate shocks.

This doesn’t mean climate change is unimportant. At the more extreme end of possible effects, many low-lying cities would face flooding, agriculture would be affected, and habitats for a number of animals would be destroyed. It’s also possible that warmer average temperatures could spawn new pathogens.

These are all potential effects of a warmer world, but as MIT economist Robert Pindyck argues in his forthcoming book, “Climate Future,” there is tremendous uncertainty about how the environment will respond to increasing amounts of greenhouse gasses.

Pindyck makes a strong case that we must prepare but departs from the usual advice.

Reducing emissions is both difficult and insufficient. He favors a world carbon tax while acknowledging that there are enforcement issues.

The author’s other recommendations are eminently doable. He makes a strong case for investing in adaptation. Above all, the world needs a huge commitment to nuclear energy.

Pindyck, while worried, is an optimist, and his book is brimming with the technological wonders we can deploy to confront this challenge.

My own bias is that we stick to solutions that don’t require differential sacrifice, because people won’t comply.

Adapt, improvise and innovate. Switch to nuclear as fast as possible, and stop terrifying the kids.

Climate change is a problem. It’s not the apocalypse.

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